SA Info
South Africa's most accurate fuel price forecast — updated daily.
Putting accurate fuel price data in every South African's hands
SA Info exists because accurate, timely fuel price information should not be locked behind paywalls or buried in government PDFs. We monitor Central Energy Fund data every day, apply the official Basic Fuel Price formula, and publish our forecast as soon as the numbers move — so that ordinary South Africans can plan their budgets, businesses can manage their costs, and nobody is caught off guard on the first Wednesday of the month.
Accuracy First
Every forecast we publish is grounded in the same CEF daily snapshot and DMPR formula used by the government itself. We do not speculate or sensationalise — we calculate. When the numbers change, we update within hours, not days.
Radical Transparency
We publish our methodology in full, cite every data source, and explain exactly how we arrive at each forecast figure. If we make an error, we correct it publicly and explain what went wrong. There are no hidden agendas and no advertiser influence on our editorial content.
Speed Over Competitors
South African consumers deserve to know about a fuel price movement as soon as the data supports it. Our automated monitoring pipeline means we track under-recovery and over-recovery positions daily and update forecasts the same day the CEF snapshot shifts materially.
What We Cover
Fuel Prices
Our flagship coverage. We track and forecast the monthly fuel price adjustment for 95 Unleaded, 93 Unleaded, 0.05% Diesel, 0.005% Diesel, and Paraffin — for both inland and coastal zones. Forecasts are updated daily using CEF snapshot data.
SASSA Grants
Plain-language guides to SASSA Social Relief of Distress (SRD), the R370 grant, Old Age Pension, Child Support Grant, and Disability Grant. We cover application processes, payment dates, status checks, and policy changes as they are announced.
Driving Licences
Step-by-step guides for learner's licences, driving licence cards, renewals, Professional Driving Permits (PrDP), and eNaTIS queries. We track DLTC availability and processing delays across the country.
Travel
South African travel essentials — passport applications and renewals, visa requirements for popular destinations, border crossing information, and domestic travel tips for South African residents.
How We Forecast Fuel Prices
South Africa's monthly fuel price adjustment is not arbitrary — it follows a transparent, formula-driven process administered by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR). Every working day, the Central Energy Fund (CEF) publishes a snapshot of the figures that feed into this formula. We collect that data daily, apply the official calculation, and translate the result into a forecast that any South African can understand.
Daily CEF Snapshot Monitoring
Each working day the CEF releases its fuel price adjustment snapshot, showing the current under-recovery or over-recovery position for each fuel grade relative to the previous month's regulated price. We ingest this snapshot and compare it against the prior day's figure to detect material movements.
Basic Fuel Price (BFP) Calculation
The BFP represents the international cost of refined fuel landed in South Africa. It is calculated from the Mediterranean and Singapore spot prices for petrol and diesel respectively, adjusted for the Rand/USD exchange rate, ocean freight, insurance, and port and storage charges at Durban. A strengthening rand reduces the BFP; a weakening rand increases it.
Levy & Tax Component Analysis
On top of the BFP, several fixed and regulated levies are added: the General Fuel Levy (GFL), Road Accident Fund (RAF) Levy, Carbon Tax Levy, Slate Levy, Equalisation Fund Levy, and the Demand Side Management Levy (DSML). We verify the current values of each levy against SARS and DMPR publications and update our model whenever these are revised — typically annually in February or March.
Inland vs Coastal Adjustment
Inland prices (Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West, Free State) are higher than coastal prices (KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape) due to transport zone differentials. We calculate and publish both zones separately so that each reader sees the forecast that applies to their province.
Forecast Publication
When our daily calculation shows a forecast change that differs materially from the previous day's published forecast, we update the site immediately. The headline figure represents the expected rand-per-litre change. We publish our forecasts with an explicit confidence note and always link to the source CEF snapshot so readers can verify our work.
The Fuel Price Formula Explained
The retail price of fuel in South Africa is the sum of several regulated components. Understanding each one helps explain why pump prices move the way they do and why international oil market movements do not translate one-for-one into local price changes.
Basic Fuel Price (BFP)
The dominant variable component. It reflects the cost of importing refined petroleum into South Africa, expressed in rand per litre. Because it is derived from international spot prices converted at the prevailing Rand/USD exchange rate, it moves daily. Over a calendar month, the DMPR calculates the average BFP movement and this drives most of the monthly adjustment.
CEF Daily Snapshot
General Fuel Levy (GFL)
A fixed excise levy collected by SARS on every litre of fuel sold. It is the largest single tax component in the pump price and is typically increased in the annual National Budget. Revenue flows to the National Revenue Fund.
Road Accident Fund (RAF) Levy
A fixed levy dedicated to funding the Road Accident Fund, which compensates victims of road accidents. Like the GFL, it is set annually in the National Budget and does not vary with the oil price.
Carbon Tax Levy
Introduced under South Africa's Carbon Tax Act, this levy is applied to fuel as a proxy for the carbon emissions associated with combustion. It is adjusted periodically in line with carbon tax policy and escalates over time as part of South Africa's climate commitments.
Slate Levy
A temporary mechanism used to recover historical under-recoveries or over-recoveries in the fuel pricing system. When the industry accumulated a debit (pumped fuel below cost), a positive slate levy is applied to recover the shortfall over time. When a credit exists, the levy may be negative, providing a small offset to pump prices.
DMPR Monthly Gazette
Equalisation Fund Levy
Contributes to the Equalisation Fund, a buffer reserve used to smooth out sudden extreme movements in international oil prices. The fund allows the government to avoid passing the full shock of an oil price spike to consumers in a single month.
DMPR
Demand Side Management Levy (DSML)
Applied specifically to 95 ULP petrol but not to 93 ULP or diesel, the DSML is designed to discourage consumption of premium-grade petrol and encourage downward pressure on demand. It contributes to the price differential between 93 and 95 at the pump.
Data Sources
Primary source for daily Basic Fuel Price snapshots and under-recovery/over-recovery data. The CEF publishes the official daily price adjustment snapshot that underpins every forecast we produce.
http://www.cef.org.zaThe official government body responsible for regulating fuel prices in South Africa. DMPR gazetttes the final monthly fuel price adjustment, typically on the last Wednesday of each month, effective the first Wednesday of the following month.
https://www.dmre.gov.zaSource for current General Fuel Levy, Road Accident Fund Levy, and Carbon Tax Levy values as published in the annual National Budget and subsequent tax legislation.
https://www.sars.gov.zaRand/USD exchange rate data used to convert international crude oil and refined product spot prices into rand-per-litre figures for the Basic Fuel Price calculation.
https://www.resbank.co.zaAnnual Budget Review and Appropriation Bills that set or confirm fuel levy values for the coming fiscal year. Referenced when levies are adjusted in February/March each year.
https://www.treasury.gov.zaTrust & Transparency
Our Commitment
SA Info is an independent digital publication. We have no affiliation with any oil company, petroleum distributor, or government department. Our revenue comes from display advertising; advertisers have no influence over editorial decisions or forecast figures. All fuel price forecasts are derived mechanically from publicly available government data using the published formula — not from insider sources or speculation.
Correction Policy
If we publish an incorrect forecast figure or factual error, we correct it as quickly as possible and add a clearly dated correction notice to the affected page. We do not silently edit or delete incorrect content. Readers who spot errors are encouraged to contact us at the address below.