The Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) daily basic fuel price data, released on 4 May 2026, shows a diesel over-recovery of 78.28 cents per litre. Combined with a sharp drop in global crude oil prices, the data is sending an early signal that diesel prices could decrease in June 2026 — before the government’s fuel levy relief is factored in.
Here is what the CEF numbers show and what it means for you.
What the CEF Daily Basic Fuel Price Shows
The CEF publishes daily basic fuel price (BFP) data that tracks the actual import cost of each fuel grade. That daily figure is compared against the contribution used to set the current pump price — the difference is the over- or under-recovery.
On 4 May 2026, the CEF daily report showed:
| Fuel Grade | Daily BFP (c/l) | Press Release Contribution (c/l) | Over-Recovery (c/l) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diesel 0.05% | 1,918.350 | 1,996.630 | +78.280 |
| Diesel 0.005% | 2,045.521 | 2,017.030 | (28.491) |
| Petrol 95 ULP | 1,601.958 | 1,447.070 | (154.888) |
A positive over-recovery means the actual fuel cost is currently below what was priced in at the last adjustment. For diesel 0.05%, that gap was 78.28 c/l on the last trading day before the May 6 price change.
Note: The over-recovery for diesel 0.005% and petrol remains negative on that day, but the single-day figure for diesel 0.05% — the grade most commonly used in trucks, generators, and agriculture — is already turning positive.
Why the Basic Fuel Price Is Declining
The BFP is driven primarily by two factors: the international price of diesel (set against the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp benchmark) and the rand/dollar exchange rate. Both have recently shifted in a direction that lowers the BFP.
Brent crude dropped sharply. After spiking to approximately $126 per barrel around 30 April 2026 — driven by US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruption fears — Brent crude fell to approximately $101 per barrel by 7 May 2026. That is a decline of nearly $25 per barrel in one week.
The CEF’s own chart of international product prices shows diesel declining steeply across the final days of April and into May, from above 500 US cents per gallon to around 320 US cents per gallon.
The exchange rate held. The rand/dollar average for the April review period was R16.6467/$. By 4 May, the daily rate was R16.6215/$ — a marginal improvement in the rand, which reduces the cost of imports in rand terms.
What Over-Recovery Means for the June Price Adjustment
South Africa’s fuel pricing formula works on a monthly cycle. The government sets a price at the start of each pricing period. If the actual daily BFP tracks above that fixed contribution, an under-recovery builds — costs are higher than what was priced in, and next month’s price goes up to compensate. If the BFP tracks below the contribution, an over-recovery builds, and next month’s price is adjusted down.
The May 6, 2026 wholesale price for diesel 0.05% was set at 3,209.600 c/l (Gauteng) and 3,122.400 c/l (coastal), based on the average BFP over the period 27 March to 29 April 2026 — when the April under-recovery was a massive 496.46 c/l as global oil prices surged.
Now that Brent crude has dropped significantly and the daily BFP is already below the press release contribution, an over-recovery is building for the new period (6 May to 2 June 2026). If Brent crude stays near $101 or lower through the pricing period, the accumulated over-recovery will put downward pressure on the BFP component of June’s price.
The Caveat: Fuel Levy Relief Is Being Phased Out
The BFP signal is positive for diesel — but there is an important structural headwind for June.
The government’s temporary fuel levy relief is being wound down. For May 2026, diesel benefited from a zero general fuel levy (R3.93/l relief). In June, that relief is halved to R1.96/l, which effectively adds R1.97/l back to the pump price for diesel users.
| Period | Diesel Levy Relief | Effective Diesel Levy |
|---|---|---|
| April–May 2026 | R3.93/l | R0.00/l |
| June 2026 (3–30 June) | R1.96/l | R1.97/l |
| July 2026 onwards | R0.00 | R3.93/l |
This means that for the June price to show a net decrease at the pump, the BFP over-recovery would need to exceed the R1.97/l levy restoration. Given that Brent has fallen approximately 20% from its late-April peak, the BFP savings over the full pricing period are likely to be substantial — but the final outcome depends on how Brent crude and the rand trade between now and the June adjustment calculation.
Note: South Africa also implemented a Slate Levy of 122.70 c/l from 6 May 2026 to begin clearing a cumulative negative slate balance of R14.173 billion. This levy is built into the current wholesale price and does not change between May and June unless the slate balance is cleared.
The June 2026 Price Picture
As of 7 May 2026, the current diesel wholesale prices (in effect from 6 May) are:
| Fuel Grade | Gauteng | Coastal |
|---|---|---|
| Diesel 0.05% | R32.10/l | R31.22/l |
| Diesel 0.005% | R32.30/l | R30.62/l |
The official June 2026 price announcement will be made by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) in the first days of June. Prices take effect from Wednesday, 3 June 2026.
Based on the early CEF data:
- If Brent crude stabilises around $100: The BFP over-recovery from lower oil prices may roughly offset the R1.97/l levy restoration — the net result for June could be close to flat or a modest decrease.
- If Brent crude drops further: The BFP savings would exceed the levy restoration, resulting in a net price decrease at the pump.
- If Brent crude rises again: The levy restoration would push prices up, with any BFP under-recovery making it worse.
The CEF daily over-recovery of 78.28 c/l for diesel 0.05% is an early positive signal — but it reflects a single day’s snapshot. The full picture will only be clear once the pricing period closes at the end of May.
What to Watch Before the June Announcement
Three factors will determine whether June brings a diesel price decrease or a further increase:
- Brent crude oil price — available daily via trading economics platforms. A sustained level below $110/barrel favours a decrease.
- Rand/dollar exchange rate — a rand stronger than R16.50/$ reduces import costs further.
- CEF daily BFP reports — updated daily at cefgroup.co.za. A consistently positive over-recovery across May confirms the decrease signal.
For a broader look at how the levy phaseout is driving June fuel price increases for petrol, see our June 2026 petrol price increase explainer.
For more information and the official daily basic fuel price data, visit the CEF Group website: https://cefgroup.co.za/daily-basic-fuel-price/
Information sourced from CEF (SOC) Ltd on behalf of the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources: cefgroup.co.za